Will Donald Trump say “Football”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Football” at 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Football
- Probability
- 47% · n=22
- Settled
- 9/22 (41%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to Ohio, where our candidate, who turned out to be a great football player, that a lot of people -- I mean, a great player,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Football |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 17, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Football | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Football |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Football | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Football | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Football | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Football | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Football | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Football”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Football” at 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (41%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Football” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Football’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/football (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=football · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP