Speech transcript, Sep 9, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In the speech on Sep 9, 2026, Donald Trump said 25 of the 43 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 42 of 43 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
43 words · 25 settled yes · our count agreed on 42 of 43- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 52%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 10+ times | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 15 | 15 | ✓ | 52%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 49%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 46%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 44%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | Yes | 7 | 10 | ✓ | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 51%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 69%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 26%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 54%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| No Tax on Tips | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Landslide | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 56%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheated / Cheater | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 48%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 65%n=345 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 51%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 50%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 46%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 42%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 41%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 34%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 55%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 47%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 36%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala / Obama / Biden 12+ times | No | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Institution | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Scholarship | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Autism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Vegan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gay | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=238 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
382 passages · part 3 of 3Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley; text: the White House (public domain) · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Prepared remarks
Roy Cooper released people like that—can't imagine as bad, but very bad—murderers—all over the streets and fields of North Carolina. Did you ever see North Carolina, how much crime they seem to have now? They never had crime. And now they want to make him a Senator. He wants to be a Senator.
Roy Cooper was Governor when North Carolina was hit by the worst water-filled, record-setting hurricane—this was a hurricane of massive water—maybe the most we've ever had hit this country—water—that left the State ravaged, and he did nothing to help. He was a disaster during that very traumatic time, and it only got fixed on January 20, when I came into office.
And the number-one advocate—and the number-one advocate and the man that called me more than anybody else—and we had great support from our Congressmen, Republicans—was Michael Whatley, the head of the Republican Party.
He did such a good job as the head of North Carolina Republican Party that I said, "I would really want"—I won North Carolina three times in a row by a lot. I said, "I really want that guy to head up the Republican Party nationally." Name is Michael Whatley. And he'll be an unbelievable—he's going to be unbelievable. There'll be nobody like him. I mean, he's just a winner.
Roy Cooper will make North Carolina a killing field, and he's a radical-left politician posing as a moderate. In fact, he's one of the worst in the entire group, but nobody really understands it yet, but they will.
And I just want to pay my condolences to the mother of Iryna—who is living in hell right now. Her daughter would be alive today if North Carolina had a different Governor, because that animal would have been in prison or worse. He wouldn't have been let go to be on the streets and be in a train sitting right behind that beautiful young lady.
So vote for Michael Whatley in North Carolina—which has become a crime-ridden State, including your new Democrat Governor, who's doing a lousy job. So Michael Whatley will straighten things out, just like he did when he ran the Republican Party in 2024 when we won a landslide election.
And here in Texas, Democrats have nominated James Talafreako for the Senate.
Boo!
And he is a weird-looking dude. I mean, I don't like talking about looks, but there's something missing there. [ Laughter ]
Remember Mad Magazine? He looks, to me, just like Alfred E. Neuman, right? [ Laughter ] No, he does. Alfred E. Neuman. Texas is not heavy into the world of Alfred E. He's Alfred E. Neuman.
And he's a bad one. He's bad. Talafreako authored a plan to annihilate Texas oil and gas. That's good. I'm working my ass off to get you oil and gas, and I got a guy that wants to end it.
Would Texas be willing to end all oil and gas drilling?
No!
And watch Texas file for the equivalent of Chapter 11. You know what it's called? Chapter 17 [Chapter 11; White House correction], if a State goes bankrupt, because that's what would happen. [ Laughter ]This guy would be a disaster.
And he stated that he wants to totally dismantle capitalism. "Dismantle," quote, capitalism.
He described himself as a person who hates Christianity, says that God is transgender. He called the American flag a "complicated symbol" of hate, claimed that the Ten Commandments are a form of fascism, and when he was asked what he loved most in the world, he said, "I love transgender children," which, you know——
Boo!
He was also somebody that hated eating meat——
Boo!
——but he ran a campaign to beat meat. He called it "beat meat." I don't know what the hell he meant by that. [ Laughter ] These people are going to tell me, "What the hell does he—he wants to beat meat?" [ Laughter ]
But it was bad for his image, so he started eating meat. And he recently—[ laughter ]—it's getting worse. I'm getting myself in trouble. [ Laughter ] It's getting worse.
But he was recently seen having a barbecue and eating a lot of meat. [ Laughter ] But that's what happened. He ate it, and then he was seen running backstage to a room and throwing up all over the place. [ Laughter ] He doesn't like meat.
He also loved wearing masks, and he was seen wearing a mask just a short number of months ago. Any guy in Texas that's wearing a mask a few months ago, this is not going to be your Senator. It's not going to work out. Not going to work.
So, getting back, freedom-loving patriots of Texas are going to defeat Talafreako and elect Ken Paxton to protect the Lone Star State. Right?
You know what's amazing? I'm looking at this massive crowd. It's filled all the way upstairs—all the way. There's a lot of people outside. And—watch this—nobody has left. It's a great tribute to Trump. Nobody has—so think of this. Nobody has left, and yet I'll read in The New York Times tomorrow that Trump lost his audience shortly—[ laughter ].
Trump! Trump! Trump!
No, I'll read—okay, we got it. I'll read—I'll read tomorrow in some of the media—the New York Times, the failing—it's a failing newspaper, by the way. It's failing badly. You know why? Because it has no credibility. But they'll have a reporter say: "Trump lost his audience. He didn't enjoy it up there." I do. I'm having a lot of fun. You know why? Because everybody loves me, and I love everybody.
So they'll say that they started leaving. I've been speaking for an hour and 20 minutes. Nobody's left. There's no—but they'll say, "The arena started emptying out," or they'll say, "The arena, which was only 25-percent full"—really? Oh, really? How about those people up—no, this place is packed and outside.
But I had the case—I was going to say before. So Lindsey Graham's sister Darline is fantastic, and she's running. And she was behind in the polls against a very good politician, Ralph Norman. Very good politician. And she was a little behind, and I was pushing for her victory.
And I went to South Carolina, and I gave a speech in a big room, and it was packed. It was packed. And because of that speech, she won the election quite nicely. She won it quite nicely. And the people—it was standing room only. The people were packed outside.
And then on watching the Sunday shows last week, a creep from the New York Times said, "I was at that room, and there was very little enthusiasm." [ Laughter ] "President Trump didn't really want to be there. You could see it. And the room was half empty. The back of the room had nobody."
Let me tell you, the back of the room made this one look empty. The place was packed. Thousands of people outside.
And here's the bottom line: Because of that speech, she won. But I had to listen to a guy lie from the New York Times. His name is Shawn McCreech [McCreesh; White House correction], something like that.
Boo!
And he lied, and he said—so just remember: We looked around, the place is packed. Nobody left. Let's keep it that way because I'm almost finished. Okay? [ Laughter ]
A vote for any Democrat this year anywhere in the country is a vote to let a small and dangerous group of extremists hold our Congress and our country hostage. If they win, every bill becomes a ransom negotiation. It will be very tough.
If we want to fund the military, then we'll have to pay the Marxists who want to destroy it. If we want a Homeland Security funding, then we'll have to pay the radicals who think we deserved, like I said, 9/11. I don't think so.
Boo!
With your vote in this election, you can tell these far-left lunatics and fanatics that America is not for sale to them or to anybody else.
U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.!
Thank you.
We do not negotiate with Communists, with Socialists, or with radical-left lunatics. We don't negotiate. The maniacs attacking our civilization think they're on this march. They're talking about, "this is a great march through our"—our country's the hottest country in the whole world. What the hell do you want us to do? They're talking about: "We will march. We will"—everything they touch—you know, one thing I notice about—even if I just talk socialism, if I talk about radical left, without even going to communism—everything—I said this once, a month ago.
I go a little off script, if you don't mind. Isn't it nice to have a President that doesn't have to use a script? Isn't that nice? Isn't that nice?
But one thing I noticed about the radical left, like, the cities—the blue cities. I don't want to go specific. I'm not going to mention New York, Chicago—[ laughter ]—or Los Angeles. I don't want to be specific. But the one thing I notice is dirt and filth. Everything's dirty and filthy and disgusting. And then the crime comes, and then the killing comes, and then everything else. And then we have to bail them out, or they don't get bailed out and the thing goes to hell completely. But it's filthy, disgusting, dirty.
You know what? I'm a guy—I hate to shake hands. I used to hate it. I had to get used to it as a politician, and I think I was right. But now—you know, if you're a politician and don't shake somebody's hand, how's that for getting a vote? Guy comes up, "Sir, may I please shake your hand?" "No, I don't want to shake your hand." "Oh, let's go out and vote for him tomorrow." [ Laughter ] You have to get used—but you know, I like cleanliness. I'm a very clean person. And I notice that these radical-left places, they turn dirty, filthy, disgusting, and then the crime follows. And we can't let that happen to our country. We just can't let it happen.
So, exactly 1 year ago tomorrow, a far-left extremist assassinated my great friend and conservative voice, Charlie Kirk, because Charlie Kirk spoke the truth. What shocked millions of American was not only the fact that Charlie was murdered, as bad as it was, but also how many people made an excuse for it or cheered for it. They were cheering—some people, sick people.
For a brief moment, the mask came off the radical left and you saw what they were really all about. And now those same people are trying to get power over you in this election, and they are all voting Democrat. Okay? They're all voting, every one of them, and you can't let it happen. We will not let them win.
And in Charlie's honor, I just want to say we love you, Charlie. And Erika is here someplace. Erika. Where is Erika?
Charlie! Charlie! Charlie!
Thank you very much. And thank you, Erika. And I think Erika is going to be here tomorrow too. She's put up with something—boy, oh, boy, what she's had to go through. And the most beautiful family. It's just terrible. But tough life. Tough life. Can't let it happen.
From the very beginning of this journey, I've not stopped fighting and I never will stop fighting to protect you, your family.
I had a great life before I did this. This is a little different. [ Laughter ] I had a very nice life. I didn't need to be here tonight. I could have been in a nice place somewhere in the world. But I want to be here because I love you people. I really do. I wouldn't trade. I wouldn't trade.
But the radical-left Communists have tried to persecute me, my loved ones, and my supporters. They attempted to put me in jail and even tried to kill me because I was doing a good job.
But through it all, I have never quit. I've never backed down. I never will. And every single promise I made to you as a candidate, I've delivered on. I've delivered on everything. We've delivered on many more things than I even talked about. Somebody said, "He's actually delivered"—the only politician they say this about—but that I've delivered many more things than I even talked about.
And all I'm asking in this election is that you stand with me. Together, we will defeat communism in America. Once and for all, we're going to defeat it, and we have to defeat it badly.
U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.!
And with your vote, because of your great work and our tremendous economic success, as I said, we're going to give you that Trump dividend of $5,000 if we win. And we're going to win.
And we'll make all Trump tax cuts permanent so that the Democrats can't end them. We have them. We're not going to let them end them.
And we'll pass the Great Health Care Plan—we call it the Great Health Care Plan—to stop all government payments to the big insurance companies—which, by the way, the insurance companies own the Democrats; they own them—and give the money directly to the people for you to go out and buy your own health care. You'll get much better health care and have money left over for yourselves.
And we're going to end, very quickly, surprise medical billing—and the surprise medical billing is a tremendous, horrible situation in our country—and require insurers and hospitals to post all prices clearly in plain English so you can see what you're getting into.
And we will make our most-favored-nation agreements on prescription drug prices permanent, which reduces your prescription drug prices by up to 90 percent. Think of that.
You know, when I was in my first term—for 28 years, there's never been a President that reduced drug prices, but I did: one-eighth of 1 percent. And I was so proud, I called for a news conference, and I bragged to the press, "So prices from January till the end of December went down one-eighth of 1 percent." And now I'm reducing them 90 percent, more.
And we'll cut out-of-control credit card swipe fees, saving the average family at least $1,200 per year, and will not allow Americans to pay seven to eight times more for those fees than they do in any other country. We—we pay seven, eight, and nine times more than they do in other—it's almost like the prescription drugs. Same kind of a thing. We'll straighten it out very quickly.
We will make it legally impossible for any future President to destroy our country by having the right to open the border again. We will pass a "no invasion of our country" act.
And we will win the war on fraud, headed up, by the way, by J.D. Vance, who's doing a great job.
You know, I watched him last week, and he was standing there with, like, 20 guys behind him, all central casting, all looked like they just got out of the greatest law schools. And I said, "It looks like Eliot Ness." It's Eliot Ness in the old days.
But, you know, J.D'.s found billions and billions of dollars of fraud, and he's just starting, and he's really enjoying it, because they're stealing from the American taxpayer. Thank you. Great job.
And we will end no-cash bail and institute the death penalty for large-scale drug dealers, human traffickers, and murderers of our law enforcement heroes.
And one way or the other, before or after, if it has to be after—I hope it's before—November 3 election, we will pass the SAVE America Act. We will make mandatory photo voter ID and proof of citizenship a staple at every single election in every single State.
And we will enshrine in permanent law no men in women's sports and no transgender mutilization of your children.
And, again, when I'm running, we get tremendous numbers of votes and people coming out, and they vote, and then they vote for the Senators and the Congressmen and women and all. But when I'm not running, it's a little different.
So, please, I ask you this as maybe more important even than the Trump dividend: Please pretend that I'm running and get out and vote on November 3 or sooner. Because in actuality, I really am running. [ Laughter ] We don't really know it, but we are. I mean, we're running together. We have to have Congress. We have to have the majorities. If we don't have the majority, so much can be lost. It could destroy—they're so destructive, these people. They have no heart. They're so destructive, and we have to make sure they don't have a chance to destroy our country.
This is one of the most important elections of your lives, only superseded by our victories in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Three great victories.
And I will see you tomorrow night, where I will be—where I will be closing out the first-ever midterm convention. This is incredible.
And, by the way, tomorrow night—I'm going to be here tomorrow night. I'm going to close it out. I'm going to say g- —but I'm not doing a big deal like this—[ laughter ]—because I don't have to say the same stuff twice. I gave you a lot of material. I don't have to do it twice.
But I'm going to be here to say goodnight to you, and I'm going to be just sort of getting up here and saying good luck and we love you all. That's what I'm going to be saying tomorrow night.
We love you!
So, in 55 days, we will do what 250 years of American history absolutely demands. We will defend our Nation's founding. We will protect our Constitution, including our great Second Amendment, which is always under siege. We will uphold the honor of our great heroes; we have great heroes. We will redeem the sacrifice of our ancestors. We will vanquish America's enemies. We will raise high the torch of liberty that was handed to us and march forward into a future of hope, pride, opportunity, and freedom.
On November 3, vote Republican for House and Senate. And, with God's help, we will lead this Nation to heights of glory and achievement never seen before, even by our country at its best.
Because together, we will make America powerful again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America healthy again. We will make America strong again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. And we will make America great again.
Thank you very much, Texas. We love you all. God bless you. God bless you all. Thank you.
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