Will Donald Trump say “No Tax on Tips”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “No Tax on Tips” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 9, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 4/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
No Tax on Tips
- Probability
- 58% · n=6
- Settled
- 4/6 (67%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…American history. I did it in my first term also, including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security…
…cuts in American history with the great big beautiful bill including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on social security.…
…tax cuts in American history with a great big beautiful bill, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security for…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | No Tax on Tips |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | No Tax on Tips |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | No Tax on Tips | Polymarket | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “No Tax on Tips”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “No Tax on Tips” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 9, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “No Tax on Tips” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘No Tax on Tips’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/no-tax-on-tip (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=no%20tax%20on%20tip · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP