Wed, Nov 18, 2026

Mention markets on this date, across every hub.

14 eventsData updated Oct 25, 2026, 12:28 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Listed words

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Wed, Nov 18

14 events

LOWLowe's

LOW: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next call: probability
TariffK 76¢	Tariff: said, 1 listing before the last	Tariff: said, the last settled listing	93% from settlement history blended with transcripts
InflationK 74¢	Inflation: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Inflation: said, the last settled listing	82% from settlement history blended with transcripts
LumberK 46¢	Lumber: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Lumber: not said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history blended with transcripts
CompetitionK 46¢	Competition: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Competition: not said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history blended with transcripts
HeadwindK 46¢	Headwind: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Headwind: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TailwindK 46¢	Tailwind: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Tailwind: said, the last settled listing	58% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+4 more words Last call · Aug 19, 2026

NVDANVIDIA

NVDA: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next call: probability
HyperscalerK 90¢	Hyperscaler: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: said, 5 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: said, 4 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: said, 3 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: said, 2 listings before the last	Hyperscaler: not said, 1 listing before the last	Hyperscaler: not said, the last settled listing	88% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Rubin3+K 91¢	Rubin: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Rubin: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Rubin: no appearance in the last settled listing	80% from transcript model
OmniverseK 73¢	Omniverse: said, 7 listings before the last	Omniverse: said, 6 listings before the last	Omniverse: said, 5 listings before the last	Omniverse: said, 4 listings before the last	Omniverse: not said, 3 listings before the last	Omniverse: said, 2 listings before the last	Omniverse: not said, 1 listing before the last	Omniverse: said, the last settled listing	70% from settlement history blended with transcripts
GamingK 55¢	Gaming: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Gaming: said, 6 listings before the last	Gaming: said, 5 listings before the last	Gaming: said, 4 listings before the last	Gaming: said, 3 listings before the last	Gaming: not said, 2 listings before the last	Gaming: not said, 1 listing before the last	Gaming: not said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history blended with transcripts
RentK 70¢	Rent: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Rent: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Rent: no appearance in the last settled listing	61% from transcript model
CosmosK 74¢	Cosmos: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Cosmos: said, 6 listings before the last	Cosmos: said, 5 listings before the last	Cosmos: said, 4 listings before the last	Cosmos: not said, 3 listings before the last	Cosmos: said, 2 listings before the last	Cosmos: not said, 1 listing before the last	Cosmos: said, the last settled listing	60% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+13 more words Last call · Aug 26, 2026

PANWPalo Alto Networks

PANW: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	the last settled listing	Chance next call: probability
XSIAMK 77¢	XSIAM: said, the last settled listing	94% from settlement history blended with transcripts
FrontierK 70¢	Frontier: said, the last settled listing	88% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TailwindK 72¢	Tailwind: said, the last settled listing	77% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Open SourceK 46¢	Open Source: said, the last settled listing	76% from settlement history blended with transcripts
MythosK 46¢	Mythos: said, the last settled listing	74% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Cortex CloudK 55¢	Cortex Cloud: not said, the last settled listing	46% from settlement history blended with transcripts

Kalshi+5 more words Last call · Sep 1, 2026

TGTTarget

TGT: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next call: probability
Target PlusK 89¢	Target Plus: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Target Plus: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Target Plus: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Target Plus: said, the last settled listing	89% from settlement history blended with transcripts
TariffK 76¢	Tariff: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Tariff: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Tariff: not said, 1 listing before the last	Tariff: said, the last settled listing	88% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Fun 101K 83¢	Fun 101: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Fun 101: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Fun 101: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Fun 101: no appearance in the last settled listing	85% from transcript model
RoundelK 83¢	Roundel: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Roundel: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Roundel: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Roundel: said, the last settled listing	85% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Back to SchoolK 88¢	Back to School: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Back to School: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Back to School: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Back to School: said, the last settled listing	85% from settlement history blended with transcripts
Remodel3+K 77¢	Remodel: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Remodel: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Remodel: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Remodel: no appearance in the last settled listing	83% from transcript model

Kalshi+9 more words Last call · Aug 19, 2026

JD VanceNYT DealBook Summit

JD Vance: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
DemocratK 68¢	Democrat: said, 7 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 6 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 5 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 4 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 3 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 2 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 1 listing before the last	Democrat: said, the last settled listing	76% from settlement history
NuclearK 48¢	Nuclear: not said, 7 listings before the last	Nuclear: not said, 6 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 5 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 4 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 3 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 2 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 1 listing before the last	Nuclear: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
BidenK 51¢	Biden: said, 7 listings before the last	Biden: said, 6 listings before the last	Biden: said, 5 listings before the last	Biden: not said, 4 listings before the last	Biden: said, 3 listings before the last	Biden: said, 2 listings before the last	Biden: not said, 1 listing before the last	Biden: not said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
FraudK 40¢	Fraud: said, 7 listings before the last	Fraud: said, 6 listings before the last	Fraud: not said, 5 listings before the last	Fraud: said, 4 listings before the last	Fraud: said, 3 listings before the last	Fraud: said, 2 listings before the last	Fraud: not said, 1 listing before the last	Fraud: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
AffordK 64¢	Afford: not said, 7 listings before the last	Afford: said, 6 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 5 listings before the last	Afford: said, 4 listings before the last	Afford: said, 3 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 2 listings before the last	Afford: said, 1 listing before the last	Afford: said, the last settled listing	59% from settlement history
2028K 56¢	2028: said, 7 listings before the last	2028: said, 6 listings before the last	2028: said, 5 listings before the last	2028: said, 4 listings before the last	2028: said, 3 listings before the last	2028: said, 2 listings before the last	2028: said, 1 listing before the last	2028: said, the last settled listing	59% from settlement history

Kalshi+13 more words

Zohran MamdaniNYT DealBook Summit

Zohran Mamdani: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
HomeK 69¢	Home: said, 7 listings before the last	Home: said, 6 listings before the last	Home: said, 5 listings before the last	Home: said, 4 listings before the last	Home: said, 3 listings before the last	Home: said, 2 listings before the last	Home: said, 1 listing before the last	Home: said, the last settled listing	75% from settlement history
SafeK 70¢	Safe: said, 7 listings before the last	Safe: said, 6 listings before the last	Safe: said, 5 listings before the last	Safe: said, 4 listings before the last	Safe: not said, 3 listings before the last	Safe: said, 2 listings before the last	Safe: said, 1 listing before the last	Safe: said, the last settled listing	69% from settlement history
TaxK 56¢	Tax: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Tax: said, 6 listings before the last	Tax: said, 5 listings before the last	Tax: said, 4 listings before the last	Tax: not said, 3 listings before the last	Tax: not said, 2 listings before the last	Tax: said, 1 listing before the last	Tax: said, the last settled listing	54% from settlement history
AffordK 84¢	Afford: said, 7 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 6 listings before the last	Afford: said, 5 listings before the last	Afford: said, 4 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 3 listings before the last	Afford: said, 2 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 1 listing before the last	Afford: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
TrumpK 74¢	Trump: said, 7 listings before the last	Trump: said, 6 listings before the last	Trump: said, 5 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 4 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 3 listings before the last	Trump: said, 2 listings before the last	Trump: said, 1 listing before the last	Trump: not said, the last settled listing	48% from settlement history
Wall StreetK 42¢	Wall Street: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Wall Street: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Wall Street: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability

Kalshi+12 more words Last transcript · Oct 23, 2026

David EllisonNYT DealBook Summit

David Ellison: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
AIK 70¢	AI: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
HollywoodK 30¢	Hollywood: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
NetflixK 30¢	Netflix: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
Warner BrosK 66¢	Warner Bros: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
TrumpK 30¢	Trump: not said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
AntitrustK 20¢	Antitrust: no appearance in the last settled listing	–

Kalshi+11 more words Last transcript · Mar 27, 2026

Elon MuskNYT DealBook Summit

Elon Musk: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
TeslaK 70¢	Tesla: said, 7 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 6 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 5 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 4 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 3 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 2 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 1 listing before the last	Tesla: said, the last settled listing	75% from settlement history
OptimusK 40¢	Optimus: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Optimus: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Optimus: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Optimus: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Optimus: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Optimus: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Optimus: said, 1 listing before the last	Optimus: not said, the last settled listing	54% from settlement history
ChinaK 49¢	China: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	China: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
NvidiaK 39¢	Nvidia: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Nvidia: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Nvidia: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
SatelliteK 46¢	Satellite: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Satellite: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Satellite: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
StarbaseK 30¢	Starbase: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Starbase: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Starbase: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability

Kalshi+11 more words Last transcript · Jan 23, 2026

Palmer LuckeyNYT DealBook Summit

Palmer Luckey: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	Chance next time: probability
AIK 76¢	–
ArsenalK 30¢	–
AutonomousK 66¢	–
ChinaK 70¢	–
DroneK 76¢	–
IPOK 21¢	–

Kalshi+11 more words

Sam AltmanNYT DealBook Summit

Sam Altman: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
Open SourceK 40¢	Open Source: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Open Source: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Open Source: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
SafeK 81¢	Safe: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Safe: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Safe: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
ValuationK 38¢	Valuation: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Valuation: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Valuation: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
AGIK 54¢	AGI: not said, 2 listings before the last	AGI: not said, 1 listing before the last	AGI: said, the last settled listing	38% from settlement history
GoogleK 22¢	Google: not said, 2 listings before the last	Google: said, 1 listing before the last	Google: not said, the last settled listing	27% from settlement history
RegulationK 62¢	Regulation: said, 2 listings before the last	Regulation: not said, 1 listing before the last	Regulation: not said, the last settled listing	26% from settlement history

Kalshi+11 more words Last transcript · Jul 22, 2025

Satya NadellaNYT DealBook Summit

Satya Nadella: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	Chance next time: probability
AgentK 82¢	–
AGIK 35¢	–
AnthropicK 28¢	–
AzureK 34¢	–
CloudK 59¢	–
ComputeK 70¢	–

Kalshi+11 more words

Vlad TenevNYT DealBook Summit

Vlad Tenev: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
OptionK 34¢	Option: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Option: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Option: said, 1 listing before the last	Option: said, the last settled listing	75% from settlement history
SportK 57¢	Sport: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Sport: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Sport: said, 1 listing before the last	Sport: said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history
BankK 40¢	Bank: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Bank: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Bank: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Bank: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
PerpK 48¢	Perp: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Perp: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Perp: not said, 1 listing before the last	Perp: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
SocialK 50¢	Social: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Social: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Social: not said, 1 listing before the last	Social: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
RetireK 46¢	Retire: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Retire: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Retire: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Retire: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability

Kalshi+10 more words Last transcript · Sep 29, 2026

Hailey BieberNYT DealBook Summit

Hailey Bieber: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	Chance next time: probability
AcquiredK 31¢	–
AdanolaK 30¢	–
BillionK 26¢	–
e.l.f.K 37¢	–
EuropeK 30¢	–
FragranceK 25¢	–

Kalshi+9 more words

Mark CarneyNYT DealBook Summit

Mark Carney: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
DefenseK 75¢	Defense: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Defense: said, 6 listings before the last	Defense: said, 5 listings before the last	Defense: said, 4 listings before the last	Defense: said, 3 listings before the last	Defense: said, 2 listings before the last	Defense: said, 1 listing before the last	Defense: said, the last settled listing	64% from settlement history
ArcticK 70¢	Arctic: said, 7 listings before the last	Arctic: said, 6 listings before the last	Arctic: said, 5 listings before the last	Arctic: said, 4 listings before the last	Arctic: not said, 3 listings before the last	Arctic: said, 2 listings before the last	Arctic: said, 1 listing before the last	Arctic: said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history
AIK 71¢	AI: said, 7 listings before the last	AI: said, 6 listings before the last	AI: not said, 5 listings before the last	AI: said, 4 listings before the last	AI: not said, 3 listings before the last	AI: not said, 2 listings before the last	AI: said, 1 listing before the last	AI: said, the last settled listing	58% from settlement history
Rare EarthK 57¢	Rare Earth: said, 7 listings before the last	Rare Earth: not said, 6 listings before the last	Rare Earth: said, 5 listings before the last	Rare Earth: not said, 4 listings before the last	Rare Earth: not said, 3 listings before the last	Rare Earth: not said, 2 listings before the last	Rare Earth: said, 1 listing before the last	Rare Earth: said, the last settled listing	50% from settlement history
AffordK 58¢	Afford: said, 7 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 6 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 5 listings before the last	Afford: said, 4 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 3 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 2 listings before the last	Afford: not said, 1 listing before the last	Afford: said, the last settled listing	49% from settlement history
TariffK 69¢	Tariff: said, 7 listings before the last	Tariff: not said, 6 listings before the last	Tariff: not said, 5 listings before the last	Tariff: not said, 4 listings before the last	Tariff: said, 3 listings before the last	Tariff: said, 2 listings before the last	Tariff: not said, 1 listing before the last	Tariff: said, the last settled listing	49% from settlement history

Kalshi+10 more words