Will Sam Altman say “Google / Gemini”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Google / Gemini” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 11, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 23¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Google / Gemini
- Probability
- 27% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…version of the story was when I was in junior high and Google came out and the teachers at the high school uh I heard…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Google / Gemini |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Google / Gemini | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Google / Gemini | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Google / Gemini”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Google / Gemini” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 11, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Google / Gemini” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Google / Gemini’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/gemini-or-google (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=gemini%20%2F%20google · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP