Will Mark Carney say “Rare Earth / Mineral”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Rare Earth / Mineral” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (54%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

50%from settlement history only · n=13Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
50¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=mineral%20%2F%20rare%20earth

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

Rare Earth / Mineral

Probability
50% · n=13
Settled
7/13 (54%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 24, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Sep 20, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes
Sep 17, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes
Jul 16, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo
Jul 8, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo
Jul 1, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo
Jun 13, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes
Jun 2, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo
May 29, 2026Rare Earth / Mineral KalshiYes
May 27, 2026Rare Earth / Mineral KalshiNo
May 20, 2026Rare Earth / Mineral KalshiYes
May 19, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes
Apr 9, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiNo
Feb 18, 2026Rare Earth / MineralKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “Rare Earth / Mineral”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Rare Earth / Mineral” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (54%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “Rare Earth / Mineral” next time?
50%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Rare Earth / Mineral’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/mineral-or-rare-earth (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=mineral%20%2F%20rare%20earth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP