Will Vlad Tenev say “Retire / Retirement”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Retire / Retirement” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 keynotes, 1 episode; Nov 6, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 11, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 42¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Retire / Retirement
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 keynotes, 1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…has a different destination. Some of you might be saving for a retirement trip. Others might be looking forward to a safe and fun family…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | Retire / Retirement |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Retire / Retirement”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Retire / Retirement” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Retire / Retirement” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Retire / Retirement’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/retire-or-retirement (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=retire%20%2F%20retirement · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP