Will David Ellison say “Trump”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, David Ellison did not say “Trump” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Mar 27, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 30¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
David Ellison
Trump
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Trump |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does David Ellison say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, David Ellison did not say “Trump” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 27, 2026.
- What is the probability David Ellison says “Trump” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “David Ellison: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/david-ellison/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=david-ellison&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=david-ellison&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP