Will Mark Carney say “Defense / Defence”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Mark Carney said “Defense / Defence” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

64%from settlement history only · n=7Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 7 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
75¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=defence%20%2F%20defense

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

Defense / Defence

Probability
64% · n=7
Settled
7/7 (100%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 20, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
Jun 13, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
Jun 12, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
May 29, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
May 27, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
May 20, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes
Apr 11, 2026Defense / DefenceKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “Defense / Defence”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Mark Carney said “Defense / Defence” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “Defense / Defence” next time?
64%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Defense / Defence’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/defence-or-defense (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=defence%20%2F%20defense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP