What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Tax” next time?

54%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Tax”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Tax” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Tax” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 22, 2025 (71%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No keynotes among them yet.

54%from settlement history only · n=7Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 56¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 01:17 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Tax

Probability: 54% · n=7
Settled: 5/7 (71%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…will be able to return to the workplace, generating economic activity and tax revenue that, by some estimates, will pay for what we are investing…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…know, conversations that we're having right now are about changing our property tax system and reckoning with all the different inadequacies of it. And as…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

The Parodneck Foundation can skip the tax affirmation documents and focus on helping low-income New Yorkers access the housing resources they need. Bronx Giants can…