Will Mark Carney say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Tariff” at 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (41%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=22, from settlement history), not a forecast.

49%from settlement history only · n=22Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
68¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=tariff

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

Tariff

Probability
49% · n=22
Settled
9/22 (41%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 23 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 24, 2026TariffKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Sep 20, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Sep 17, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jul 29, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Jul 16, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Jul 8, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jun 13, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jun 12, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jun 11, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Jun 2, 2026TariffKalshiYes
May 29, 2026TariffKalshiYes
May 27, 2026TariffKalshiNo
May 20, 2026TariffKalshiNo
May 19, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 23, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Apr 13, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 11, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Apr 9, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 31, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 30, 2026TariffKalshiYes
Mar 27, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 26, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Feb 18, 2026TariffKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Tariff” at 9 of 22 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (41%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “Tariff” next time?
49%, from settlement history (n=22). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP