Will Vlad Tenev say “Perp / Perpetual”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Perp / Perpetual” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 keynotes, 1 episode; Nov 6, 2025 – Sep 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 48¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Vlad Tenev
Perp / Perpetual
- Probability
- 53% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 transcripts
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Um, there's been an explosion of a new class of futures called PERPS. How many of you have heard of those or even traded those?…
…elsewhere, now's your time. For those of you who haven't heard of PERPS, let me give you a quick download on on how they work…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Perp / Perpetual |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Perp / Perpetual | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Vlad Tenev say “Perp / Perpetual”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Vlad Tenev said “Perp / Perpetual” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Vlad Tenev says “Perp / Perpetual” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Vlad Tenev: ‘Perp / Perpetual’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/vlad-tenev/words/perp-or-perpetual (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=vlad-tenev&word=perp%20%2F%20perpetual · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=vlad-tenev&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP