Will Mark Carney say “Arctic”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Arctic” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (89%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 63% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

63%from settlement history only · n=9Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
70¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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API

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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=arctic

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

Arctic

Probability
63% · n=9
Settled
8/9 (89%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 10 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 24, 2026ArcticKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Sep 20, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Sep 17, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Jul 8, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Jun 13, 2026ArcticKalshiNo
May 29, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Apr 11, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Mar 31, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Mar 27, 2026ArcticKalshiYes
Mar 26, 2026ArcticKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “Arctic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “Arctic” at 8 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 26, 2026 (89%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “Arctic” next time?
63%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘Arctic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/arctic (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=arctic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP