Will Elon Musk say “Optimus”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Optimus” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 23, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 keynote; Jan 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 41¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Elon Musk
Optimus
- Probability
- 54% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…quickly. I think uh we we we do have some the Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. Um we expect it it…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Elon Musk say “Optimus”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Elon Musk said “Optimus” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 23, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Elon Musk says “Optimus” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Elon Musk: ‘Optimus’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/elon-musk/words/optimus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=elon-musk&word=optimus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=elon-musk&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP