Donald Trump: Episode, Nov 21, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say on the Brian Kilmeade Show on Friday?
Markets
20 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 55%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tax / Tariff 7+ times | No | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Walmart | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ass / Shit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Turkey / Egg | No | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Mamdani / AOC | No | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 44%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 44%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| King | No | 43%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Radical 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| South Africa | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President Xi | No | 39%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Larry / Bird | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cristiano / Ronaldo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 3+ times | No | 34%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 30%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 18%n=189 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-on-the-brian-kilmeade-show-on-friday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP