Donald Trump: Monthly window, Nov 30, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say in November?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Nov 1, 2025 to Nov 30, 2025. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
21 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tylenol | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ethiopia / Uruguay | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IQ Test | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thanksgiving | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waitress | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Crooked Joe | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernie / Sanders | Yes | – | 0 | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 33%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peanut | Yes | – | 0 | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Steroid | No | – | 0 | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Laptop | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Banana Republic | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Candy from a baby | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ice Cream | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mop / Mopped | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mustache | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refrigerator | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | No | – | 0 | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| N word | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fuck / Fucking / Fucked | No | – | 0 | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-november · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP