Donald Trump: Posts window, Apr 5, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)
Coverage
0 known appearancesevery post in the window Window: Mar 30, 2026 to Apr 5, 2026. Counts: post text (reposts excluded; image text counts). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
25 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrorist | Yes | – | 0 | 60%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Happy Easter | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | – | 0 | 34%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Trump derangement / Trump deranged | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat Shutdown | Yes | – | 0 | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | – | 0 | 66%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Congresswoman | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace Through Strength | No | – | 0 | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Memphis | No | – | 0 | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kuwait | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gay | No | – | 0 | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | – | 0 | 46%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | – | 0 | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Keir / Starmer | No | – | 0 | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Movie Star | No | – | 0 | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Easter Egg | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy Joe Biden | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Statue | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pahlavi | No | – | 0 | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | – | 0 | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | – | 0 | 35%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Bully of the Middle East | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Free Tina Peters | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epic Fury | No | – | 0 | 31%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Panican | No | – | 0 | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-post-this-week-march-30-april-5 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP