Donald Trump: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say in October?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Oct 1, 2025 to Oct 31, 2025. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | – | 0 | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Bread | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chile / New Zealand / Albania | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Don't Take Tylenol | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone war | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jerome Too Late Powell | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia Russia Russia Hoax | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ass | Yes | – | 0 | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | – | 0 | 47%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus | No | – | 0 | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ebay | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greta / Thunberg | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jeffrey Epstein | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Little Rocket Man | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marxism | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| N Word | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| They Spit We Hit / They Spit And We Hit | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tom Cruise | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China Virus | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pocahontas | No | – | 0 | 48%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | – | 0 | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-october · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP