Will “Diesel” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Diesel” was said on World News Tonight in 10 of 16 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 4, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 4.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Diesel
- Probability
- 51% · n=16
- Settled
- 10/16 (62%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Counts: any host or reporter
1 counted.
…comes after the president announced a deal to allow Russia to sell diesel to the US and signed an executive order suspending US sanctions against…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: any host or reporter
3 counted.
…Trump voter, tells our John Carl what he cares about right now is the sky-high cost of diesel and fertilizer, not who Donald Trump supports.
And after the president lifted restrictions on Russian diesel, Putin can now sell diesel to the United States. And now Ukraine claims Elon Musk's Starlink…
Every settled listing
newest first · 16 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Diesel |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Diesel” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Diesel” was said on World News Tonight in 10 of 16 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 4, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Diesel” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Diesel’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/diesel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=diesel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP