Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on World News Tonight in 9 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 5. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 50% · n=15
- Settled
- 9/15 (60%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: any host or reporter
2 counted.
…DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE. AND I THINK THAT THE WAR IN IRAN IS HER IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE. I
…HERE IS WHAT I REMEMBER. ONCE I REALIZED SOMETHING WAS HAPPENING OUTSIDE, I RAN TO SEE WHAT WAS GOING ON. I THEN SAW THE SHOOTER…
Counts: any host or reporter
11 counted.
…the Strait of Hormuz. Tonight, we have exclusive access where they're monitoring Iranian missile and drone threats. Here in this country, the young college football…
Tonight to the Strait of Hormuz in this war in Iran, our team on the USS George Washington carrier group with exclusive access where they're…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 2 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on World News Tonight in 9 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP