What is the probability “Ukraine” is said on World News Tonight next time?

38%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Ukraine” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Ukraine” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ukraine” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 9 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 5.

38%from settlement history only · n=9counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes yes no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 07:11 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Ukraine

Probability: 38% · n=9
Settled: 3/9 (33%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · 1:16In transcript

…TONIGHT, THE MAJOR HEADLINE INVOLVING MEGHAN MARKLE'S FATHER. THIS EVENING, THE DUCHESS, NOW REACTING TO THE DISTURBING ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HER DAD, THE WAR IN UKRAINE.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 22, 2026 · Oct 22, 2026 · 2:03In transcript

…HOURS LATER, RUSSIA UNLEASHING A DEADLY ATTACK ON KYIV. JAMES LONGMAN IN UKRAINE, THE EMERGENCY LANDING ON THE HIGHWAY. A MAJOR INTERSTATE SHUT DOWN TONIGHT.…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 0:34In transcript

…asked if that's how he would describe Putin with this war in Ukraine still raging. Tonight, the hazmat emergency right now, the dangerous chemical leak,…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 19, 2026 · Oct 19, 2026 · 1:23In transcript

Tonight, our team inside Ukraine. the dramatic images tonight our crew scrambling to get to the bunker multiple times the danger overhead was that jet…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 14, 2026 · Oct 14, 2026 · 2:06In transcript

…to plunge. Lee Goldberg is here with the forecast. Tonight, Russia's new assault on Ukraine, and President Zelensky says they feel betrayed by the U.S.