Will “NATO” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “NATO” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 7, 2026 (27%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
NATO
- Probability
- 36% · n=11
- Settled
- 3/11 (27%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | NATO |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 10, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 7, 2026 | NATO | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “NATO” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “NATO” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 7, 2026 (27%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026.
- What is the probability “NATO” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP