What is the probability “Pentagon” is said on World News Tonight next time?

41%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Pentagon” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Pentagon” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, “Pentagon” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2026 (43%), most recently on Sep 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

41%from settlement history only · n=7counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Pentagon

Probability: 41% · n=7
Settled: 3/7 (43%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026 · Oct 16, 2026 · 15:40In transcript

…the USS George Washington aircraft carrier near the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon saying the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil being enforced by this strike…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 9:07In transcript

Mr. Secretary, are you sad about the public execution? Tonight, the Pentagon saying the secretary supports the president's decision and they are completely aligned. The…