Will “Hormuz” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Hormuz” was said on World News Tonight in 6 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (40%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Hormuz
- Probability
- 37% · n=15
- Settled
- 6/15 (40%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…tonight on the USS George Washington Carrier Group near the Strait of Hormuz. Tonight, we have exclusive access where they're monitoring Iranian missile and drone…
…the midterms. Pierre Thomas standing by on what we've learned. Tonight, our team on board, the USS George Washington, right near the Strait of Hormuz.
…attack on a container ship. This is right here, the Strait of Hormuz, and of course, suggesting that it'll put even more pressure on oil…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Hormuz |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Hormuz | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Hormuz” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Hormuz” was said on World News Tonight in 6 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (40%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hormuz” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP