Will “ICE” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 23, 2026, “ICE” was said on World News Tonight in 15 of 42 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 14, 2026 (36%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=42, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the 8 latest transcripts we have (8 episodes), it reached the market's count 3 times.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
ICE
- Probability
- 42% · n=42
- Settled
- 15/42 (36%)
- Latest transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Counts: any host or reporter
4 counted.
…quote audacity to do it. Tonight, the disturbing video appearing to show ICE agents hitting a man with their vehicle. What Homeland Security is now…
…a fight with a teammate during practice. Also ahead, look at this disturbing video appearing to show ICE agents hitting a man with their vehicle.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Counts: any host or reporter
12 counted.
…the president is now saying about this. Tonight, ABC News learning an ICE agent put on leave. Surveillance video showing the incident, two men fleeing…
…star quarterback Jalen Hurts suddenly sidelined. Also tonight, the officer fired after allegedly giving flock camera surveillance to her husband, who is an ICE agent.
Every settled listing
newest first · 42 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | ICE |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 18, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 17, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “ICE” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, “ICE” was said on World News Tonight in 15 of 42 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 14, 2026 (36%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=42). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP