Will “Tariff” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 21, 2026 (13%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Tariff
- Probability
- 32% · n=15
- Settled
- 2/15 (13%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…VISIT TO IOWA TONIGHT. YOU'RE GLAD TO HAVE HIM BACK HERE. WHY? TARIFFS HAVE DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE. AND I THINK…
Every settled listing
newest first · 15 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Tariff |  Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tariff | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Tariff” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 15 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 21, 2026 (13%), most recently on Sep 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “Tariff” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP