ABC World News Tonight, October 7, 2026
On the Oct 7, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 5 of the 16 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 16 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
16 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 16- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane / Isaias | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 66%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Pneumonic / Plague | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | No | 2 | 2 | ✗ | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| CIA / Central Intelligence Agency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Saudi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Anduril | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nobel Prize | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Fort Hood / Pentagon | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| FCC / Federal Communications Commission | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Measles | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
Tonight, the breaking news right here. The hurricane now bearing down on the U.S. Will it be a Category 2 hurricane up to 110 mile-per-hour…
…plague? What the World Health Organization is now demanding tonight And President Trump now saying of Russia, if you listen to them, it's under control.
…the Republican Senate candidate now blaming in audio the president's war in Iran and gas prices. Tonight here, the ABC News investigation. You're looking at…
…O'Brien and the team, incredible reporting. Thank you. We turn tonight to Russia. The U.S. issuing a formal complaint now to the Kremlin over its…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-07:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-07:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP