What is the probability “Alaska” is said on World News Tonight next time?

50%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Alaska” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Alaska” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Alaska” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 18, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2.

50%from settlement history only · n=3counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
Streak: said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 23:45 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Alaska

Probability: 50% · n=3
Settled: 2/3 (67%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? · said 11 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: any host or reporter

11 counted.

Speaker not labelledreporter0:53In transcript

…NOW LAUNCHING A LAWSUIT ALREADY THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY BLOCK CERTIFICATION OF THE ALASKA SENATE RACE IF THE REPUBLICAN DOES NOT WIN. PRESIDENT TRUMP TONIGHT SAYING…

Speaker not labelledreporter8:01In transcript

…NOW LAUNCHING A LAWSUIT THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY BLOCK THE RESULTS OF THE ALASKA SENATE RACE IF THE DEMOCRAT WINS. AND TONIGHT, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE…

Every match in the transcript