What is the probability “Vance” is said on World News Tonight next time?

39%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Vance” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Vance” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Vance” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 21, 2026 (38%), most recently on Sep 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

39%from settlement history only · n=8counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 00:32 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Vance

Probability: 39% · n=8
Settled: 3/8 (38%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 1:57In transcript

ad against her. And Vice President Vance tonight applauding the Republican for having the quote audacity to do it. Tonight, the disturbing video appearing to…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 8:20In transcript

Vice President J.D. Vance said he would not watch. A new ABC News Washington Post Ipsos poll shows eight in 10 Americans oppose live streaming…