Will “Ceasefire” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 25 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (4%), most recently on Jul 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=25, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 24% · n=25
- Settled
- 1/25 (4%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…UKRAINE TONIGHT, THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS MELANIA TRUMP HAS BROKERED A LOCAL CEASEFIRE TO ENABLE CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS FROM THE EASTERN UKRAINIAN CITY OF OLESHKY, WHERE…
Every settled listing
newest first · 25 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Ceasefire |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Ceasefire | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Ceasefire” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 25 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 8, 2026 (4%), most recently on Jul 9, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=25). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP