What is the probability “Hurricane” is said on World News Tonight next time?

44%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Hurricane” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Hurricane” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, “Hurricane” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 6 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Sep 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

44%from settlement history only · n=6counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:25 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Hurricane

Probability: 44% · n=6
Settled: 3/6 (50%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 18:48In transcript

…been a long, challenging road to get here. Just two years ago, Hurricane Milton devastated Tampa Bay. The roof of Tropicana Field Baseball Stadium was…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 12, 2026 · Oct 12, 2026 · 1:36In transcript

…hear what they say. Tonight, we fly over the destruction, the deadly hurricane slamming into the Gulf, rooftops torn away, apartment buildings ripped open. Tonight,…