Will “Supreme Court” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said on World News Tonight in 6 of 19 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (32%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Supreme Court
- Probability
- 30% · n=19
- Settled
- 6/19 (32%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 19 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Supreme Court” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Supreme Court” was said on World News Tonight in 6 of 19 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (32%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Supreme Court” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Supreme Court’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP