What is the probability “Hegseth” is said on World News Tonight next time?

37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Hegseth” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Hegseth” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hegseth” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

37%from settlement history only · n=3counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 18:58 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Hegseth

Probability: 37% · n=3
Settled: 1/3 (33%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 1:27In transcript

after what Secretary Pete Hegseth declared just days ago. What the president is now saying about this. Tonight, ABC News learning an ICE agent put…

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight? · not said

Open the appearance