Will “Dubai / Tel Aviv” be said on World News Tonight next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Dubai / Tel Aviv” was said on World News Tonight in 4 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any host or reporter
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
ABC World News Tonight
Dubai / Tel Aviv
- Probability
- 54% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: any host or reporter
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Dubai / Tel Aviv |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Dubai / Tel Aviv | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dubai / Tel Aviv | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Dubai / Tel Aviv | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Dubai / Tel Aviv | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
Questions
- How often is “Dubai / Tel Aviv” said on World News Tonight?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Dubai / Tel Aviv” was said on World News Tonight in 4 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 30, 2026 (80%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
- What is the probability “Dubai / Tel Aviv” is said on World News Tonight next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.
Cite parrot.markets, “World News Tonight: ‘Dubai / Tel Aviv’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/world-news-tonight/words/dubai-or-tel-aviv (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=world-news-tonight&word=dubai%20%2F%20tel%20aviv · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=world-news-tonight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP