# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-10-18 (settled) · 45 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT19 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:47:42Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-18 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT19 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 19, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 0 of 7 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:06:01Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 24 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-10-17:rally-kentucky: the rally video's captions (his turns only) (late)
# rows 1-25 of 45 by p · more: offset=25 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	14	12	0.86	YYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.87	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	129	97	0.75	YnYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.86	hist	0	0	yes		1
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	21	16	0.76	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.84	hist	9	10	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	246	144	0.59	YYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.8	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	33	22	0.67	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.79	hist	0	0	yes		1
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	11	8	0.73	YnYYYnYnYY	8	1	0.77	hist	0	0	yes		1
Landslide	landslide	64	44	0.69	YYYnYYYYYY	8	2	0.77	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Kamala	kamala	62	35	0.56	YYYYYYnnYn	8	0	0.77	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	103	55	0.53	YYnYnnnYYn	8	1	0.75	hist	4	4	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	187	114	0.61	YnYYYYYnYY	8	0	0.73	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Melania	melania	85	54	0.64	YYnnnYYYYY	8	1	0.7	hist	0	0	yes		1
Superintelligence / Super Intelligence	super intelligence|superintelligence	2	2	1	YY	8	1	0.67	hist	0	0	yes		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	49	32	0.65	YnYYYYnnYn	8	0	0.63	hist	0	0	yes		1
Save America Act	save america act	74	43	0.58	YYYYYYYnYY	8	0	0.63	hist	0	0	yes		1
Blockade	blockade	34	15	0.44	YnnnnnYnYn	8	0	0.63	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	51	35	0.69	YnnnnYnYYY	8	0	0.62	hist	0	0	yes		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	58	37	0.64	YYnnYnYYYn	8	0	0.62	hist	0	0	no		1
Steel	steel	16	11	0.69	YYYnnYYYnY	8	0	0.61	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Voter ID	voter id	11	6	0.55	YnYYnYnnYY	8	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes		1
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	71	33	0.46	nYnnnYnYYY	8	0	0.6	hist	11	23	yes	1	
Vivek / Ramaswamy	ramaswamy|vivek	3	2	0.67	nYY	8	0	0.59	hist	0	2	yes		1
Moon	moon	35	16	0.46	YYnYnnYnYY	8	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes		1
Ilhan / Omar	ilhan|omar	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.57	hist	8	8	yes	1	
Houthi	houthi	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	8	0	0.54	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	32	16	0.5	YnYnnYYYYn	8	1	0.53	hist	0	0	no		1