# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-10-04 (settled) · 37 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT05 · as_of 2026-10-24T13:00:16Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-04 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT05 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after September 28, 2026 at 8:15am ET and before Oct 5, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 0 of 8 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:06:01Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 10 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-10-03:rally-ohio: the rally video's captions (his turns only) (late)
# rows 1-28 of 37 by p · more: offset=28 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	118	87	0.74	YYYYYnnYnY	8	0	0.86	1	3	yes	1	
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	12	10	0.83	YYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.85	1	5	yes	1	
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	19	14	0.74	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.8	2	22	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	233	131	0.56	nYYYnnYYYY	8	1	0.78	0	1	yes		1
Kamala	kamala	51	27	0.53	YYYYnnYYYn	8	0	0.78	0	0	yes		1
Landslide	landslide	62	42	0.68	nnYYYnYYYY	8	2	0.75	1	2	yes	1	
Ukraine	ukraine	100	53	0.53	YnnYYnYnnn	8	1	0.73	0	0	yes		1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	176	105	0.6	YYnnYYnYYY	8	0	0.71	1	2	yes	1	
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	9	6	0.67	YYnYYYnnY	8	1	0.69	0	0	yes		1
Melania	melania	83	52	0.63	YYYYnnnYYY	8	1	0.67	0	0	yes		1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	47	31	0.66	nYYnYYYYnn	8	0	0.66	0	0	yes		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	56	36	0.64	YnYYnnYnYY	8	0	0.64	1	2	yes	1	
Save America Act	save america act	61	32	0.52	nYYYYnnYYY	8	0	0.59	0	0	yes		1
Voter ID	voter id	9	4	0.44	nYnYYnYnn	8	0	0.59	0	0	yes		1
Blockade	blockade	21	9	0.43	nYnYnnnYYn	8	0	0.58	0	0	yes		1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	49	33	0.67	YYYnnnnYnY	8	0	0.57	0	0	yes		1
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	22	11	0.5	YnnnYYYYYY	8	0	0.57	1	1	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	69	31	0.45	nYnYnnnYnY	8	0	0.57	0	4	yes		1
Moon	moon	31	13	0.42	nnnYYYnYnn	8	0	0.54	0	0	yes		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	30	15	0.5	nYYnYnnYYY	8	1	0.53	0	1	yes		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	63	36	0.57	nYnYnnnnYY	8	0	0.47	0	0	no		1
Third Term	third term	19	6	0.32	nYnYnnnYYn	8	0	0.46	0	0	yes		1
Antifa	antifa	26	6	0.23	nnnYnnnYYY	8	1	0.42	0	0	no		1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	41	12	0.29	nnnnnnnYYn	8	0	0.41	0	0	no		1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	509	54	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.36	0	0	no		1
Nobel	nobel	40	5	0.12	YnYnnnnnnn	8	0	0.35	0	0	no		1
Stupid Question	stupid question	31	8	0.26	YYnnnnYYnn	8	0	0.31	0	0	yes		1
Soleimani	soleimani	19	6	0.32	YnnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.28	0	0	no		1