Will Donald Trump say “American Flag Blue”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “American Flag Blue” at 3 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (21%), most recently on Jun 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
American Flag Blue
- Probability
- 36% · n=14
- Settled
- 3/14 (21%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | American Flag Blue |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | American Flag Blue |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 29, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 18, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | American Flag Blue | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “American Flag Blue”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “American Flag Blue” at 3 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026 (21%), most recently on Jun 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “American Flag Blue” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘American Flag Blue’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/american-flag-blue (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=american%20flag%20blue · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP