Will Donald Trump say “Pearl Harbor”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pearl Harbor” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2025 (38%), most recently on Aug 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pearl Harbor
- Probability
- 49% · n=8
- Settled
- 3/8 (38%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pearl Harbor |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pearl Harbor | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pearl Harbor | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pearl Harbor | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pearl Harbor | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Pearl Harbor |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Pearl Harbor | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Pearl Harbor | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pearl Harbor”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pearl Harbor” at 3 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 5, 2025 (38%), most recently on Aug 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pearl Harbor” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pearl Harbor’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pearl-harbor (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pearl%20harbor · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP