Will Donald Trump say “AOC”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “AOC” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (57%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
AOC
- Probability
- 55% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AOC |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | AOC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 1, 2026 | AOC | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | AOC |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 10, 2025 | AOC | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | AOC | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 1, 2025 | AOC | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “AOC”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “AOC” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 1, 2025 (57%), most recently on Oct 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “AOC” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘AOC’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/aoc (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=aoc · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP