Will Donald Trump say “Somalia”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Somalia” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Somalia
- Probability
- 55% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…seat of the former Ilhan Omar from from the lovely country of Somalia from the lovely country of Somalia where they have no government where…
…a long time. You know, she comes from a non country basically. Somalia has no government, has no nothing, has nothing. All they do is…
…channel to reveal that the Somali community -- the lovely community from Somalia, lovely country -- in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was stealing billions and billions of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Somalia”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Somalia” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Somalia” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Somalia’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/somalia (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=somalia · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP