Will Donald Trump say “Train”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Train” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 10, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Train
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…And legendary Tampa Bay Buccaneers fullback and Super Bowl champion, the A train, Mike Ol. The Ara. He was tough. Good job, Mike. He was…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Train”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Train” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 10, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jul 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Train” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Train’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/train (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=train · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP