Will Donald Trump say “Pennsylvania”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pennsylvania” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 15, 2024 (83%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pennsylvania
- Probability
- 44% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pennsylvania |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Pennsylvania | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Pennsylvania | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Pennsylvania | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Pennsylvania |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Pennsylvania | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pennsylvania”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pennsylvania” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 15, 2024 (83%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pennsylvania” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pennsylvania’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pennsylvania (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pennsylvania · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP