Will Donald Trump say “Vance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Vance” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 4, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Vance
- Probability
- 39% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…war on corruption and fraud led by our great Vice President J. Vance. And we will pass the No Invasion of Our Country Act, prohibiting…
…of the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, Vice President JD Vance, who's been amazing. He's done a fantastic job along with FTC Chairman,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vance |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Vance | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Vance |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vance | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vance | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Vance | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Vance | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Vance | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Vance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Vance” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 4, 2024 (50%), most recently on Oct 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Vance” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP