Remarks transcript, Jun 23, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks on Affordability in Macungie, Pennsylvania

In remarks on Jun 23, 2026, Donald Trump said 34 of the 51 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 50 of 51 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

51 words · 34 settled yes · our count agreed on 50 of 51

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Oil / Gas 5+ timesYes1818✓43%n=3 from settlement history–
Oil Yes1515✓60%n=89 from settlement history–
Iran 5+ timesYes1111✓58%n=9 from settlement history–
Iran Yes1111✓58%n=114 from settlement history–
Border 7+ timesYes1111✓57%n=5 from settlement history–
Obama / Biden 7+ timesYes99✓50%n=5 from settlement history–
Venezuela Yes88✓62%n=33 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes77✓67%n=17 from settlement history–
China Yes77✓51%n=162 from settlement history–
Fake News Yes77✓50%n=122 from settlement history–
Tariff Yes77✓50%n=192 from settlement history–
Tariff 7+ timesYes77✓41%n=8 from settlement history–
Nuclear Yes66✓60%n=162 from settlement history–
Biden Yes66✓51%n=279 from settlement history–
Sleepy Joe Yes55✓60%n=88 from settlement history–
Gas / Gasoline Yes55✓58%n=36 from settlement history–
Stock Market Yes55✓48%n=104 from settlement history–
Manufacture / Manufacturing Yes55✓44%n=6 from settlement history–
Rally Yes44✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Hottest Yes33✓45%n=261 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence Yes33✓35%n=176 from settlement history–
First Term Yes22✓52%n=24 from settlement history–
Barack Hussein Obama Yes22✓48%n=101 from settlement history–
Transgender Yes22✓48%n=148 from settlement history–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability Yes22✓30%n=37 from settlement history–
America First Yes23✓27%n=48 from settlement history–
Hormuz Yes22✓22%n=53 from settlement history–
Democrat Yes11✓53%n=163 from settlement history–
250 Yes12✓50%n=42 from settlement history–
Fraud Yes11✓44%n=41 from settlement history–
President Xi Yes11✓42%n=30 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli Yes11✓39%n=57 from settlement history–
Dumb Yes11✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat Yes00✗48%n=6 from settlement history–
Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ timesNo2324✓59%n=4 from settlement history–
Iowa No00✓60%n=7 from settlement history–
Gulf of America No00✓46%n=24 from settlement history–
Soybean No00✓46%n=12 from settlement history–
Alaska No00✓42%n=6 from settlement history–
Kamala No00✓41%n=28 from settlement history–
Algae No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Vandal / Vandalism No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Garbage No00✓40%n=5 from settlement history–
Leading China No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Soleimani No00✓39%n=8 from settlement history–
Negotiation / Negotiator No00✓37%n=35 from settlement history–
Bibi / Netanyahu No00✓35%n=49 from settlement history–
Japan No00✓35%n=13 from settlement history–
Data Center No00✓32%n=4 from settlement history–
World Cup No00✓30%n=40 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓3%n=408 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

371 passages · part 3 of 3

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

Mr. Nickal1:07:37

And so it really felt—it felt to me like he was in my corner. I know that was something that was just so special, and I feel, like, just incredibly grateful.

And overall, the whole week of the experience, everything, the word that kept coming to mind and the emotion that I kept feeling was gratitude. And I'm grateful for President Trump, grateful for all my friends and family and supporters, and I'm grateful to be an American. And it's the best country on Earth.

And God bless you all.

Mixed martial artist and wrestler Anthony Cassar1:08:16

How's everybody doing? This is an awesome crowd. I'll keep this really short.

It's just an honor to be here. Bo and I have been roommates since our freshman year at Penn State and never could have imagined this.

But it's an honor to support Mr. President, this great Nation, and the American workers that build the foundation of the United States of America.

So, as a small-business owner, real estate investor, I just want to thank President Trump for the "Big Beautiful Bill," all he's done for small-business owners. And most importantly, I pray that God will continue to bless him and guide him to lead this great Nation and God bless all of us.

Thank you.

Two great champions. That's great. It's good to have them here too. We have a lot of champions in the audience. These are two very special people.

When you do that—I was saying to myself, you know, going into that ring and you got all these people—we had the richest and the biggest politicians. We had the biggest of everything. You couldn't get a ticket. The tickets were selling for some crazy numbers, I heard. We gave them away to everybody, but somehow, some got out.

And I was saying, "That's a tremendous amount of pressure." And you're fighting the toughest people on Earth. I mean, these are the strongest, toughest men on Earth. No women. In the crowd, but—which is nice. But these are the toughest men on Earth, and it's tremendous pressure.

And you know, the muscles—you've got the muscles. You guys, you've got the big, strong muscles. But you've got this muscle too——

——because it takes much more than just the normal muscle to win those matches. I mean, the strategy and the genius that goes into it. It is a genius. A lot of people wouldn't understand that. But there's a genius. There's a genius in sports.

But there's a great amount of courage and power that you have that a lot of other people don't have. So congratulations. Really great job. Great job. Good to have you here.

In everything we do, we are once again fighting for the people of Pennsylvania, and that includes our amazing Pennsylvania oil and gas workers. And I ended last administration's war on Pennsylvania energy, and I signed an order to drill, baby, drill. That's what we did. Right, David? And you helped.

The United States is now the number-one producer of oil and gas on Earth, larger than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by a lot. Think of that. Who would have thought that?

We were in fourth place. Now we're larger than—and that doesn't include Venezuela. Include Venezuela once, because it's essentially—should be included.

I also ended the war on clean, beautiful Pennsylvania coal. In fact, in my administration, you're not—because, you know, coal was dead.

China uses it. Other countries—very successful countries use it. The unsuccessful countries use wind—those beautiful windmills that blow around and round and don't do anything except cost you money. Every time it goes around, you lose $10.

You're supposed to make money with energy, not lose money.

No, wind is—every country that's using wind is a disaster.

Every country that's using our beautiful substances from underground are doing very nicely. Thank you.

But in my administration, you're not allowed to say the word "coal" without preceding that word with the words "clean, beautiful." So you say "clean, beautiful coal."

And I have Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum—who is fantastic—and Chris Wright, and they made a speech about coal, and they mentioned coal, like, 50 times in the speech. It's all about coal. And they kept saying: "Clean, beautiful coal. Clean, beautiful coal." I said: "No, no, no, that's enough. That's enough." But we're not allowed to use the word coal without saying—because what they can do with coal today is amazing. It is clean. It is beautiful. They can clean it, and it's a very powerful form of energy.

And if you look at China, they're doing—they're building 57 coal plants throughout—big, monster plants—all over their country. And then we're not supposed to do that? No, 're doing that. Clean, beautiful coal.

We've invested over $1 billion to save dozen of—dozens of coal mines. We've saved them. They were ready to close, and some had closed. And more than 100 coal power plants, including the Keystone and the Conemaugh generating stations right here in Pennsylvania, as you know, are really moving now and employing a lot of people. They were all getting ready to close up. They were essentially closed.

We're working hard to lower the cost for all consumers, and we want powerful energy.

Under my administration, the most-favored-nation agreements on drug prices that we just did are delivering the largest prescription drug price cuts in history, with numbers like 400-, 500-, and even a 600-percent reduction from where it was. Think of that. That alone should win us the midterm.

And the fake news back there refuses to talk about it because they know how good it is, because they can't produce it. They've been trying to do it for years—favored nation.

We paid the highest drug price in the world, by far, as an example for the fat drug, which Bo and Tony don't need to take, but a lot of people are taking. Who takes the fat drug? [ Laughter ]

So, in New York—think of it—it was costing a fortune. Many, many times. It was costing $1,300, and in London it was $87. And a friend of mine, who's extremely fat, sloppy, but very brilliant—he's a brilliant businessman, but he's a slob. There's no question about it. [ Laughter ] Very neurotic person, which you need sometimes to be successful.

But he called me up. He used to call me "Donny." "Donny." Now he calls me "Mr. President." That's a sign of great respect.

But he said, "President, I just came over here, and I bought"—I won't say Ozempic or whatever the hell it was—but "I bought the fat drug." I said, "I didn't know you used it, because it's not working." And—[ laughter ]—and I use him as a—he's begging me not to use his name, so I won't, but he's a very successful guy. He's actually a pretty well-known guy, brilliant business guy, worth a lot of money.

And he checked—he just—you know, he said, "Well, how come in London—I just sent out, and there I'm paying $87, and in New York I'm paying $1,300?" I said, "Because that's the way the prices are rigged." And it's rigged—the whole world is rigged against us. And I said: "But you know what? You brought it out better than anybody could bring it out, because I've been looking at it."

They all said it was impossible to do. And I went to the drug companies, and I said: "Well, it's not going to be anymore. You're going to raise their price a little bit, you're going to lower ours a lot, because the world is bigger than us." So it really worked that way.

And they said, "Well, we'll do it." They were very unhappy, but they knew I wouldn't get it from the countries, because you had to get it from the countries.

Then I went to France. I said to a very nice man named Emmanuel Macron. I said, "Emmanuel, you've got to raise your prices on drugs." "Of course I will not do that. Why would I do that?" "Because it's unfair. We're paying 10 times more than you. And you're going to have to raise them a little bit, and we're going to drop ours a lot." He said, "No, no, I will not do that." I said, "Yes, you will." He said, "I will not do that." I said: "Yes, you will. We're putting a 100-percent tariff on all wines and champagnes coming into the United States." He said: "Yes, I will do that. I promise." [ Laughter ]

And I had the same conversation with Germany, with every country, with U.K. Every single one of them, within 5 minutes, agreed to do it. Nobody could believe it. And they agreed to raise their price, and we have gotten the biggest price reductions in the history of drugs, medical. Nobody has ever seen anything like it.

So, instead of paying $1,300, you'll be paying about $175. Nobody has ever done that before. And this is on many, many drugs.

A pill that sells for $10 in London and selling for $150 in Texas or any place. It's all the same in the United States. They basically discriminated.

So, now instead of $10, it goes to $20. Because, again, the world is a big place. And we would bring ours down to $20—from, like, $150 down to $20. This is the kind of price reductions you're getting.

Go to Trump.com [TrumpRx.com; White House correction], by the way. And I didn't name it. That was Bobby Kennedy that did it with Dr. Oz. Everyone thinks I named it. I did not name it. But that site is through the roof.

And these are the biggest price reductions in the history of our country for anything having to do with drugs, prescription medicine. So that alone should win the midterms.

And there's a real chance that they would end it because they're totally controlled by these foreign countries—the Democrats, the "Dumocrats."

So, starting next week, weight loss drugs will be available for just $50—think of that—for seniors who previously had to pay $12-, $1,300, $1,400. Couldn't pay it. Think of that.

Now, they don't want to write—look, they turn the cameras off when they talk about it because they don't want good stuff for us because they don't want us to win elections. And why? I don't know. Why they want to have people pouring into our country, why they want to have high taxes, why they want to have all of these problems that took place over the last 4 years of the last administration, one of the worst administrations in history. But the other ones wouldn't be much better because they have all of these crazy policies. They've gone communist.

But just over 1 year ago, we inherited the worst border in history, but I quickly turned it into the most secure border in the history of our country, by far. Almost nobody is able to get in.

And in the past 13 months—and this is a chart kept by, generally, "Dumocrat" people. In the past 13 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted into the United States. Think of that. Zero.

And even I find that hard to believe, but it's zero. I mean, it's—they'd love to have it be high, but it—you know, we can't do that. We have a country, and we're going to run it well.

We don't want to have prisons released into our—they—some of these countries were emptying their prisons into the United States of America through the southern border. Prisons. Prison population. Some of the countries had no prison population left. You know what that saves them? Some of them had no mental institutions. The mental institutions were taken—all of those people were taken to our southern border and allowed to just walk freely into our country under Sleepy Joe Biden and his group of thugs. They're a group of real thugs. Weaponization—that's all they're good at. Weaponization and cheating on elections.

In 2025, we achieved the largest drop in the murder rate ever recorded in the history of our country, despite the fact that we haven't gotten all of these criminals out of our country. We had the lowest since 1900. That's 125 years ago.

And we cut the flow of fentanyl across our border by 56 percent. That's a big number. And we cut the flow of illegal drugs coming in by water, coming in by ocean or sea. We cut it by 97 percent. Ninety-seven. Ninety-seven percent. It was—it's very drastic, but people aren't traveling that way too much anymore. [ Laughter ]

What we—what we're able—we have the most powerful—I built the military in my first term. We used it in my second term more than I thought, but we have no choice. We have no choice.

But think of it. We cut fentanyl. For years, they've been interdicting. They've been grabbing boats, bringing them in, putting them in court. They go out. By the same night, they're back sending drugs by the ocean, by the Gulf, by the sea.

And now it's down 97 percent. And we're looking for the 3 percent, because I think those 3 percent are more brave than Bo Nickal was any day. The 3 percent of the people that are willing to get into a boat to deliver drugs now, they are the bravest people perhaps anywhere in the world. [ Laughter ] But it won't happen long.

But what we've done is amazing. Our military—we have the greatest military in the world. We have the greatest law enforcement in the world.

And we have the highest number of recruiting. So, a year and a half ago, it was headlines: Nobody wanted to join the military, the Army, Navy, Marines. Nobody wanted to join any of them—Air Force, Space Force—I love Space Force—Coast Guard. Nobody wanted to join any of the military. They had tremendous recruitment problems.

And even—it carried over to the police. You have great police here—the police and the fire departments. Nobody wanted to do anything with the name "America," anything with a uniform.

And today, we have the highest recruitment, the most successful recruitment. Every single slot is filled. And that includes they want to be policemen and they want to be firemen and -women.

So we went from the least successful in our history, David, to the most successful in the history in terms of recruitment. We was—it was very embarrassing a year and a half ago, 2 years ago.

And it all happened from November 5. That's when we won the election. From November 5 on, everybody wants to be a soldier; everybody wants to be in the Army, the Navy, the Marines. They want to fly the jets in the Air Force. The Coast Guard is hot, your—everything is hot. And, of course, Air Force.

You know, I started Air Force [Space Force; White House correction]. That was a part of the Air Force. The Space Force was part of the Air Force. I said: "No, it's got to be separate. Got to do its own thing." And it's become——

So we were in third place 4 or 5 years ago, and I put it in. We were losing to China and to Russia, and now we're totally ahead of both of them, like at numbers that they can't believe. Space Force is going to end up being one of your most important.

To stop the massive theft of taxpayer dollars, including millions of illegals, we've launched the war on fraud, led by our great Vice President, J.D. Vance. He's doing a great job. Doing a great job. Smart guy.

We ended Medicaid for illegal immigrants, and we redirected $50 billion to make the largest investment in rural health in the history of our country—hospitals and everything else in the rural areas.

And, with the help of our Republican majorities in Congress, we will defend our jobs, our factories, our safety, and we will defend our borders like never before. We will crush violent crime, impose harsh new penalties on dangerous repeat offenders that shouldn't be in our country, crack down on Marxist prosecutors and judges, and we will immediately end the most dangerous thing that's ever been put into our country, from the standpoint of law enforcement. It's called no-cash bail. You kill someone, you go to the judge, they let you out. Then you kill somebody in the afternoon. It's crazy. That was the beginning of crime.

We will pass the Great Health Care Plan to stop all payments to big insurance companies and give the money directly to the people so they can buy their own health care, which will be much better care at a much lower cost.

And we will pass the SAVE America Act to protect our sacred American elections. And in the SAVE America Act—it's very simple—all voters must show a photo voter ID. Very nice. "May we see a picture, please?" All voters must provide proof of citizenship. And there will be no mail-in ballots, except for illness, disability, military deployment, or travel.

And we will also, in that same bill, enshrine in permanent law no men in women's sports—and no transgender surgery for our children.

So, together, with the help of patriots throughout Pennsylvania and all across the land, we will make America powerful again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America healthy again. All happening. It's all happening. We will make America strong again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. And we will make America great again.

Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, Pennsylvania.

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