Will Donald Trump say “Alaska”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alaska” at 6 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Alaska
- Probability
- 62% · n=12
- Settled
- 6/12 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…who the hell she was. Well, they're trying to do that in Alaska. We have a man named Dan Sullivan. So, the Democrats, maybe here…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alaska |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Alaska |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 3, 2026 | Alaska | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Alaska | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Alaska | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 30, 2025 | Alaska | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Alaska | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Alaska | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Alaska”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Alaska” at 6 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2024 (50%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Alaska” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Alaska’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/alaska (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=alaska · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP