Will Donald Trump say “Iowa”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iowa” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 20, 2025 (88%), most recently on Jun 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 7/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Iowa
- Probability
- 46% · n=8
- Settled
- 7/8 (88%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…No, we don't. We have this at every We had it in Iowa. We had Iowa was fantastic last night. How about me? I come…
…everybody else. And I want to just say a special hello to Iowa. It's a incredible place. I'm thrilled to be back in this state…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Iowa |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Iowa |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Iowa | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Iowa”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iowa” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 20, 2025 (88%), most recently on Jun 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iowa” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iowa’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iowa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iowa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP