Will Donald Trump say “Tariff” 7+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 7+ times at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (60%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (7+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tariff 7+ times
- Probability
- 59% · n=10
- Settled
- 6/10 (60%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…more now because we're a little longer than that. Thanks to my tariffs, my favorite word, I have to tell you. But no longer. It's…
…Look, they all remember 28 billion dollars. It all came out of tariffs. My my fifth favorite word used to be my favorite word, but…
…in big trouble with a B. 22 billion dollars. I impose historic tariffs. One of my all-time favorite words. It used to be my favorite…
…special relationships to this day, very, very special trade, the use of tariffs and the threat of tariffs and various other reasons depending on the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Tariff 7+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Tariff 7+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tariff 7+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tariff” 7+ times at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (60%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tariff 7+ times” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tariff 7+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tariff-7plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tariff%20%287%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP