Will Donald Trump say “Middle East”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Middle East” at 18 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=36, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Middle East
- Probability
- 54% · n=36
- Settled
- 18/36 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…American citizens. They're in Southeast Asia. They're in Africa. They're in the Middle East. And the FBI's Operation Blackout, with our interagency partners, has gone…
…and mass murder, spreading death and carnage and chaos across the entire Middle East and beyond. They were the bully of the Middle East, but…
Every settled listing
newest first · 36 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Middle East |  Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 14, 2026 | Middle East |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 12, 2026 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Middle East | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Middle East | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Middle East | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Middle East | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Middle East”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Middle East” at 18 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Aug 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Middle East” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=36). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP