Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 6, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during C5+1 Summit on November 6?
Markets
22 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thank you 8+ times | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Eight wars | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 57%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 55%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 2+ times | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 52%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham / Kazakhstan | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Azerbaijan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Caspian Sea | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / China 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden / Obama 4+ times | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / AI | Yes | 36%n=186 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Critical Mineral | Yes | 36%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 12+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Asia / Asian 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Best Equipment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soviet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dead Country | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-c51-summit-on-november-6 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP