JD Vance: Appearance, Jan 22, 2026
Polymarket What will J.D. Vance say in Ohio on Thursday?
Markets
15 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| God 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland / Denmark | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Baby / Pregnant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden Administration 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foreign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refund | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ass | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | Yes | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Egg / Gasoline 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job 12+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 29%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 17%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-in-ohio-on-thursday · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP